The NHL at the BreakWhere, oh where did I go so wrong?
WEST
1. Detroit Red Wings [my pick - 1st Central]
The ‘Big Red Machine’ of the Wings continues rolling along piling up wins like Green Stamps at a Dollar Days sale. Chris Osgood picks up the slack when Hasek is out with injury and the nobodys and the 2nd and 4th lines chip in enough to keep everyone honest. They look unbeatable in a 7 game series right now.
2. Dallas Stars [my pick – 3rd Pacific]
The Stars lead right now over the Anaheim Ducks by 1 point but the Stars play a scrappy style of hockey. The chemistry forged on the Ribeiro – Morrow – Miettinen line is unbelievable a lot of nights. Mike Modano is looking forward to his wingman Jere Lehtinen coming back after the break. 3rd line winger Niklas Hagman is having a breakout year. The young kind Matt Niskanen on D looks to be a Brian Leetch starter kit and Nick Grossman a reliable shutdown guy ala Sean O’Donnell. Could use a scoring winger to work with Modano.
3. Calgary Flames [my pick – 3rd Northwest]
Calgary started slow and now seems to have found the chemistry that eluded them for the first month of the season. Will have to keep scoring to keep ahead of Minnesota and Vancouver who both trail them by 1 point – all world goaltending from Kiprusoff cannot keep them afloat alone. Rumors of Alex Tanguay being shopped are not going away.
4. Anaheim Ducks [my pick – 1st Pacific, WC Champs]
The Ducks looked like blind men caught in the crosswalk before Scott Neidermeyer graced them with his return 20 games ago. Since then, the defense has settled down and the scorers are scoring – including a return to the old school form for Todd Bertuzzi, which makes a return by the Finnish Flash Teemu Selanne gravy. Maybe the only team not scared of the Red Wings.
5. San Jose Sharks [my pick – 2nd Pacific, WC runner up]
I still like the Sharks on paper. But the games aren’t played on paper. The times I have watched the Sharks they seem totally disinterested in the game, as in no sense of urgency. This playoff they won’t have Nashville to tune up on and they’re looking at a quick exit unless Jonathan Cheechoo or somebody else starts potting goals regularly. And they will have to rest Evgeni Nabokov eventually – he is not Martin Brodeur yet.
6. Minnesota Wild [my pick – 2nd Northwest]
The Wild continue playing tight defensive hockey and Marian Gaborik continues to be an offensive sparkplug. The Wild are a real Wild card – they may be able to go deep in the playoffs with the right seeding, but if they want to go fatr, they too need some consistent 2nd line scoring. The return of Mikko Koivu from injury should help.
7. Vancouver Canucks [my pick – 1st Northwest]
In the tightest division in hockey, the Canucks hold the ace with Roberto Luongo in net, but like a lot of teams, they need someone on the second line to kick it up a notch. Former super sniper Markus Naslund is having a mediocre year, though he tends to finish strong. Do they have an asset to flip to make a play for Marian Hossa?
8. Colorado Avalanche [my pick – 4th Northwest]
The Avs have been ripped by injuries to Joe Sakic and Ryan Smith and now Paul Stasney is out after an appendectomy. Stastny has the tools but needs to be more consistent. Jose Theodre has suddenly found his game again and may keep the Avs afloat until one of the scorers returns, but I doubt it.
9. Nashville Predators [my pick – 2nd Central]
I did think Nashville had the parts to be okay, but early injuries to defensemen [and future blue line studs] Shea Weber and Ryan Suter hurt the club as well as wildly inconsistent goaltending in the absence of Tomas Vokun. Radek Bonk scored some key goals early, but has [as predicted] faded. Current injury to 2nd line [and ‘Face of the Franchise’] David Legwand hurts a team trying to mount an attack.
10. Columbus Blue Jackets [my pick – 5th Central]
The Jackets have responded to having former Stars and Flyers coach Ken Hitchcock through a training camp and preaching a system. Hitch found a way to motivate the enigmatic Nikoli Zherdev and Rick Nash scored the goal of the year in Phoenix a couple weeks ago. If the Jackets can learn how to win on the road down the stretch, they may challenge for the 8th or 7th seed. But a team that is one to watch.
11. Phoenix Coyotes [my pick – 5th Pacific]
Somehow coach Wayne Gretzky’s faith in his youngsters is being rewarded. Peter Mueller and Radim Vrbata seem to be on their way and having Shane Doan and Ed Jovonovski to back up the kids doesn’t hurt. But this team will go only as far as waiver pickup [and just extended for 3 years] Ilya Bryzgalov takes then in net. Bryzgalov certainly knows how to win having come from the Stanley Cup champ Ducks, but this team is still a player or two from being serious contenders.
12. St. Louis Blues [my pick – 3rd Central]
The Blues have certainly played like contenders at times, but are mired in a major slump. In this conference, teams cannot go through major slumps. Paul Kariya has certainly performed as advertised, though he is currently a minus player. Anyone who picked Brad Boyes to have 28 by the All Star break, please stand up… no one? Flipping the aged warrior and over-rated Doug Weight for the younger faster Andy McDonald should have helped this team, but it hasn’t, though he has 15 points in 14 games. Like a lot of teams, the Blues lack a consistent 2nd line scoring threat.
13. Chicago Blackhawks [my pick – 4th Central]
The Hawks looked great earlier this year when all their young guns were going – Patrick Kane, Jonathan Teowes, Patrick Sharp, Jason Williams – and a resurgent Robert Lang and an out of nowhere Dustin Byfiglien leading the charge. But with Toewes and Williams on the shelf, the Hawks look like a team struggling to find its game. They could make a late run and push the Blues or Pred for the 8th spot, but I think next year will be the year for the Hawks.
14. Edmonton Oliers [my pick – 5th Northwest]
The misery predicted for the Oilers faithful has come true. Though not a bad team, the Oilers continue to struggle. If they’d play Mathieu Garon instead of the suddenly pedestrian Dwayne Roloson, they might be better off.
15. L.A. Kings [my pick – 4th Pacific]
The Kings continue to struggle to put forth defensive effort nightly. Moving Rob Blake for a young stay at home defenseman would help. And though they have some great forwards to watch [Andre Kopitar, Alexander Frolov, Mike Cammalleri], they Kings remain a one line team.
EAST
1. Ottawa Senators [my pick – 1st Northeast, EC Champs]
The Sens have had some bumps in the road and still have Danny Heatley on the shelf, but seem to have found the balance to maintain their mission to get back to the Cup finals. Could Ray Emery and his attitude be shopped for a defensive stud?
2. New Jersey Devils [my pick – 5th Atlantic]
I admit it, I thought this was the year the Devils started to rebuild rather then retool. But new coach Brent Sutter has found a way to keep the Devils competitive in the rough and tumble Atlantic. And rest Martin Broduer.
3. Carolina Hurricanes [my pick – 1st Southeast]
Maddeningly inconsistent, the Canes benefit from being in the worst division in hockey. On the other hand, the somehow lit a fire in Sergei Samsonov and got him playing like he was projected to back when he and Joe Thornton were the Bruins next generation.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins [my pick – 2nd Atlantic]
Sid the Kid is out for 6 – 8 weeks? This is the time for this team to REALLY find out what they are about. Evgeni Malkin is still one of the top 10 forwards in the league, though he is a finisher more like Alexander Ovechkin than Crosby. If they can stay afloat until Sid gets back, it may prove that the Pens are more than a one trick pony. Hey, the old Pens survived long periods without Mario, too! Pens may shop for a veteran 2nd line center. Also having Ty Conklin reel off 8 in a row [including 2 shut outs] helped a lot.
5. Montreal Canadiens [my pick – 4th Northeast]
I had the Habs on the playoff bubble, but the sudden magic between Alexi Kovalev, Thomas Plekanec and Andrei Kostitsyn [yes, I had to look those up] has the Canadiens on a roll. Christobal Huet has picked up where he left off last year and Cary Price looked great backing him up ealier this season. Andrei Markov and Mark Striet have taken up the slack for the missing slap shot of Sheldon Souray and the Habs don’t seem to miss it. Could they use one more rugged defender like Rob Blake?
6. Philadelphia Flyers [my pick – 3rd Atlantic]
All the trades the Flyers made last year have worked out for this team – Scottie Upshall, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen, Joffrey Lupal and Bradon Coburn have all been great players for the Flyers this year. But it’s the homegrown talent of Mike Richards, Jeff Cater and R.J. Umberger who are driving this bus, along with free agent extraordinaire Daniel Briere. With Simon Gagne back from injury, Briere and Mike Knuble have their playmate back and the Flyers have four lines that can play any game you want – run and gun, rough and tumble, etc. The team no one wants in the first round of the playoffs.
7. N.Y. Islanders [my pick – 4th Atlantic]
If you had told me Mike Comrie, Bill Guerin and Ruslan Fedotenko would be the first line for this team and they would be in the race for a playoff spot at the break, I’d have offered to take $ 5 – 10 of your money. But darn if Ted Nolan hasn’t gotten the most out of a bunch of ‘Who’s that?’ players. And without Bryan Berard or Marc-AndrĂ© Bergeron scoring a lot of points form the back end. Bruno Gervais and Chris Campoli [who just went on IR for the duration] have been good finds on the blueline for this team.
8. Boston Bruins [my pick – 5th Northeast]
Another team playing surprisingly good hockey of late, the Bruins are doing well without number 2 center Patrice Bergeron and without one player with more than 18 goals. But the Bruins seem content to play a chippy game and find different ways to beat you – ask the NY Hockey Rangers. I like Dennis Wideman, but I think the Bruins need one more veteran defenseman to be taken seriously. Getting Glen Murray and Bergeron back from IR would help a lot, too. And it’s Alex Auld and Tim Thomas, not Manny Fernandez in the nets, boys and girls!
9. N.Y. Rangers [my pick – 1st Atlantic, EC runner up]
Another team that looks great on paper, but not on the ice at times. Jaromir Jagr with 15 goals and 46 points? Brendan Shannahan with 15 and 30? Chris Drury a -13? Only Scott Gomez seems to be playing his game this year, 11 goals, 36 assists. Having Martin Straka back will help Jagr – but they are surely missing the magic they had with Michael Nylander. The Rangers are also behing the eightball in that all of the teams they are chasing have games in hand of the Blueshirts. Still, they should be able to pass Boston late in the season.
10. Washington Capitals [my pick – 3rd Southeast]
Talk about addition by subtraction – Michael Nylander goes out with a bad shoulder and the steady Brian Pothier goes out with a head injury and the Caps catch fire. Suddenly the well traveled Viktor Kozlov goes nuts setting people up, Alexander Semin finally kicks it into gear after early season injury troubles, hyped up rookie Nicklas Backstrom begins to produce and Alexander Ovechkin finds yet ANOTHER gear? Anybody have defenseman Mike Green with 14 goals at the break? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? If Olaf Kolzig can stay healthy, the Caps might pass the Rangers and Bruins and might give Carolina a run in the South-least.
11. Atlanta Thrashers [my pick – 5th Southeast]
After starting 0-6 and firing Bob Hartley, the Thrashers righted the ship, then sank, now they seem to have settled. They got Mark Recchi for a song and he is responding to a new environment. But the question remains whether the Thrashers will keep the dynamic Marian Hossa and hope to sign him before free agency starts, or do they ship him out for youth and picks and try and rebuild ?
12. Florida Panthers [my pick – 4th Southeast]
Now that the Panthers don’t have a prayer of a playoff spot, they will pick up their play as usual. 10 years and counting for Oli Jokinen’s first playoff game. Tomas Vokun now understands what Roberto Louongo went through all those years in Sunrise, FL.
13. Toronto Maple Leafs [my pick – 3rd Northeast]
Even though Mats Sundin continues playing at a high level, the rest of the Leafs have all ready mailed it in. Unfortunately. And I look now for the Leafs to be 15th in the conference since both Buffalo and Tampa Bay have games in hand on the Leafs. Will the Leafs be able to move any of their high priced talent at the deadline? I’d keep Tomas Kaberle and Pavel Kubina and see what you can get for Hal Gill and Bryan McCabe. Sundin wants to remain with the Leafs? I’d let him finish his career there, or at least stay as long as he can stomach the losing. Veska Toskala was a major major disappointment coming from the Sharks.
14. Buffalo Sabres [my pick – 2nd Northeast]
I thought the Sabres had enough depth and good enough goaltending to stay in the mix for a playoff spot. Ooops.
15. Tampa Bay Lightning [my pick – 2nd Southeast]
Vincent Lecavalier is having another Art Ross winning season, but the Bolts goaltending did them in early and often. Management says they’re going to keep all four of their top paid players – Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Dan Boyle and Brad Richards. But having Richards as purely a power play specialist [as his -23 rating – dead last in the league reflects] is a luxury the Lightning can no longer afford. Richards could use a change of scenery in my opinion. Use that cap space to tie up Paul Ranger and Vinnie Prospal and grow a goaltender, or swap underachieving goalies with the Maple Leafs.