Aftermath!
No, not the 4th or 5th worse Stones album, nor your sixth period chemistry class [after math - get it?] but the trade deadline aftermath has all ready begun and the first casualty is Ottawa Senators coach John Paddock. Granted the Sens burst out of the gate 15-2 and they are in a 7-14 slump [having lost the last two by being shut out 4 - 0, 5-0]... still, how wise is it to axe your coach and have someone come in cold with 18 games left in the season? Yes, Sens G.M. Bryan Murray is an experienced coach who has led the Sens before taking the G.M post this year [100 - 46 - 18], but again, how smart is this to do NOW?
New Jersey fired Claude Jullien last year with 8 games remaining in the season for the same poor play going into the playoffs, but the Devils under G.M. extraordinaries Lou Lamorillo only won one round in the playoffs, but that was a team that saw fit to ride Martin Brodeur for close to 75 games in the regular season.
Just for me, I think this is a bad move. The Red Wings are in a terrible slump right now, even though they have their top 2 defensemen [Lidstrom, Rafalski] and their co-number one goalie [Hasek] out. But no one is calling for Mike Babcock's job, nor should they be. The Red Wings also set a torrid pace this year and now it seems to have come up to bite them from behind. Sometimes fans and G.M.s forget this is a marathon, not a sprint.
The Sens still did not do themselves any favors by leaving their goaltending situation unresolved - either by declaring Gerber or Emery the main starter or moving one of them and showing managements 'true concern' about what is not happening in the Ottawa crease - that being goals being stopped.
Look, all I am saying is that NO ONE has gone and won 82 games in a season - losses happen. Players tire and get hurt, deals get made or not made. The time to change a coach is December or January - when the players have a couple of months to get used to the new demands of them and adjust. Murray has an advantage in that the players that have been there for the last couple of years know what he wants and expects, but it may still take time to adjust. The Sens have high expectations after being the Eastern Conference Champs last year and a lot of people picked them to return to the finals - me being one of them - but I think this move sends the Sens from contenders into true disarray at precisely the wrong time of the year.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
The Deadline
More troubling is the Avs apparent desire to return to their past, trading for the now aging Adam Foote and the ‘large but that’s about it’ Karlis Skrastins. True this gives the Avs size and snarl on the blueline again, something clearly lacking since Foote left at the start of the 06-07 season, but this is not the NY Rangers bringing together Mark Messier’s old Edmonton teammates for one more Cup. The two stars of the last Avalanche Cup – Ray Borque and Patrick Roy – remain retired.
Don’t get me wrong, Pittsburgh has young talent to burn, but one wonders about upsetting team chemistry when one trades two players under 26 who are helping the team and when one of them is your superstar’s best friend on the team [Armstrong]. And don’t mistake that Hossa is one of the true snipers in this league, someone who will hopefully be able to finish all those pretty passes from Sidney Crosby. It also allows the Pens to keep together the Evgani Malkin – Peter Sykora – Ryan Malone line that had found so much chemistry in Sid’s absence.
But still, this team is playing well without their star – not unlike when Ronnie Francis and Jaromir Jagr learned to take over when Mario was out. Is it worth possibly upsetting the apple cart to rent Hossa for the playoffs? Is Hossa going to take less than market to stay in Pittsburgh at the end of the year? I doubt it. I probably would NOT have done this deal. Unless Ray Shero is thinking to keep Hossa out of the hands of another Eastern Conference team like Ottawa or New Jersey.
The Pens also picked up some size and depth on their blueline in Hal Gill. The 6’7” Gill and Mark Eaton could make an interesting shutdown pair. Or Gill and Brooks Orpik.
Apparently Richards was not looking te be the key cog in another rebuilding team like the Chicago Blackhawks, so he allowed himself to be sent to the Pacific Division leading Dallas Stars. Tampa Bay gets back a good young goaltender [Does Dallas ever run out of them? They’ve traded Roman Turek, who was good for a year and a half in Calgary, Mike Smith and Nashville’s Dan Ellis since winning the Cup in 1998-99 – and they have Marty Turco] to help their situation and Dallas gets a stopgap backup until their next ‘goalie of the future arrives. Richards should immediately help the Dallas power play, running the point for the missing for another month Sergei Zubov. I would run Richards out centering with Mike Modano on the left [his off side] wing with Jere Lehtinen. The fact the Richards is 27 and signer for three more years gives the Stars a good pair of pivots for the next few years.
Washington owner Ted Leonsis has put his money where his mouth is and picked up what he hopes will be a couple of parts to take the Southeast division and make the Caps a competitive playoff team. Fedorov has been largely invisible [and injured] for Columbus this year, and though he is also not the Fedorov of a decade ago, he still has two Stanley Cup rings, which no one else in the Caps locker room can say. In Huet, who the Caps will probably look to sign to a long term deal to replace the aging Olaf Kolzig. What’s really great is that Washington gave up almost nothing for a couple of players who can help immediately. Huet was playing well for Montreal, but being unrestricted at the end of the year, Bob Gainey decided to shoot craps and unload the veteran, leaving him with two untested goalies going into the playoffs. Now Washington has the luxury of resting Kolzig and giving him another capable backup, or riding Huet with Kolzig behind him and riding whoever is hotter in the playoffs.
The Matt Pettinger for Matt Cooke deal is almost a wash, though in Cooke, the Caps do get another veteran with lots of playoff experience.
Having been burned by two centers in July, Buffalo G.M. Darcy Regier was determined to get something for Brian Campbell before he could walk away this coming July 1st. He picked up another young forward with tons of upside in Bernier, but that addresses his need for one or two centers not one iota. Buffalo has a ton of great wingers, but no one to feed them the puck. No one is talking about Buffalo’s sudden need to rebuild, especially when their neighbors 100km east on the Q.E.W. [Toronto] is in much more need of serious help, but Regier has dropped the ball completely the last 24 months. Sabres fans are loyal, but going back from Cup contenders last season to a major refit in two years is not going to sit well. Hey Buffalo, Doug Armstrong is available!
Another head scratcher, the ‘Yotes and the Blue Shirts swap goalie prospects and the ‘Yotes lose the tremendous upside of Sjostrom for the underachieving ‘Other’ Hossa. Marcel is NOT his brother, not a sniper. Maybe that’s just in New York. Maybe former Rangers G.M. Don Maloney figures he has a hot center who can work with the younger Hossa and turn him into a hot shot.
Now that Brad Richards is out of the 'Big Three' in Tampa Bay [now Lecavalier, MartinSt. Louis and defenseman Dan Boyle], look for John Tortarella to be the next person oout in Tampa Bay. 'Torts' style of 'My Way or the Highway' has worn thin on the players and they are tuning him out. Which is not to say that he is a bad coach or he can't make players play for him, but like Ken Hitchcock in Dallas, his act is 'been there, done that, heard this before.' Could he show up in Edmonton and try and grow that young team into contenders?
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Everything Means Less Than Zero
I just finished a couple of Bret Easton Ellis' books, Rules of Attraction and Less Than Zero. [BTW, the book of LtZ is nothing like the movie – or should I say the movie is nothing like the book? The jacket blurb from USA Today reads: A Catcher in the Rye for the MTV Generation. How many of the MTV Generation ever read Catcher in the Rye? Besides me, Amanda and Kat?]
What strikes me about these books is how dead these characters are, dead inside. They don't seem to really have feelings. They don't really seem to care about anything. Whether this is the point or not, I'm not sure I am qualified to say. Sure these are the spoiled rotten rich kids who don't really have any concerns butsex and drugs and rock & roll.
But it leads me to wonder: What do I really care about? At the end of LtZ, Blair asks Clay, after he admits he never loved her, if he ever really cared about her. He replies:
I don't want to care. If I care about things it'll just be worse, it'll just be another thing to worry about. It's less painful if I don't care.
A lot of times nowadays, I feel like that, like I really don't give a flying fig. I try to no longer care about people not following procedures at work. I try not to care about the attitude of total slack that goes on amongst the group. I try not to care about being the outsider. I try not to care about myself, my life, my job… I don't want to disturb others with my need for contact and touch and understanding. Sometimes I feel like I am wandering though a life, barely conscious of my own existence until I slam my shin into the coffee table. Does that make me nihilistic or just bored? Can one be bored of their own existence?
Not that Ellis doesn't have a point. It does hurt too much to care; especially when one gives of themselves and the caring is not returned, at least not in the obvious ways. Or in the way one wants or needs it returned. I know I am guilty of not fulfilling others needs or expectations. Sometimes out of self protection, sometimes out of ignorance. I mentioned the lady I knew a long time ago. I think I filled a need for her but left her lacking in a lot of ways, mostly out of my own naivety and inexperience. I did that to a lot of people and God knows I have been second guessing myself ever since. [I hope I have said I'm sorry to most of you; a couple I do not know how to reach, but I am sorry.]
I've been disappointed by others, too. Some of the people I cared most about let me down in one way or another. I learned Clay's lesson and I have tried to limit my exposure. Most days I can get away with it, some days it stings, once in a while I need to come home and drink a 40 oz. with Wild Turkey chasers. Some days I question it all and let it blurt like this and give you all a peek behind the curtain.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Everybody’s Talking
Speculation runs rampant in the NHL these days about trades – who’s going where and for whom and who’s buying and who’s selling and who has assets and all kinds of fun stuff lie that.
The Hockey News has an article speculating that the NY Rangers may shop former wunderkind Jaromir Jagr since they are unlikely to sign him next season [and since they have Brendan Shannahan for leadership]. Here’s an unlikely scenario – Jagr and Paul Mara to Calgary for Adrian Aucoin and Alex Tanguay. How about Jagr and Mara to Buffalo for Brian Campbell and Drew Stafford? Or does the Rangers signing away Chris Drury poison any trade talk between the two? Jagr to Colorado for J.M. Liles? Now a line of Statsny – Jagr and Wolski behind Sakic – Smyth and Hejduk suddenly adds punch to a team struggling for offense.
The other big name being passed about is Marian Hossa of the Atlanta Thrashers. Hossa is a sniper and a skater, but he’s going to want big bucks as a free agent next year. HE will make any team picking him up suddenly very dangerous. Carolina would be happy to see him leave the division, but would they pony up Eric Cole or Cory Stillman [or both?] to add him to their stable? Probably Atlanta wouldn’t trade him in their division, though. How about that oft reported change of scenery scenario where the San Jose Sharks send Patrick Marleau and/ or Jonathan Cheechoo east? Personally, I wouldn’t mind a Hossa for Martin Havlat deal to Chicago, but Chicago is just now seeing some benefit to finishing poorly the last decade, and they will be unlikely to give up one of their hot defensive prospects which Atlanta would demand. Some people think Dallas would be a player, but I would think only in a rental mode.
Look, these trade deadline deals haven’t made huge impacts in a decade or more. Usually a team that feels they need a player or two tries to make their move around the All Star break – see Carolina picking up Mark Recchi and Doug Weight on their way to the Cup. Keith Tkachuk [Gesundhiet!] didn’t make the Thrashers Cup contenders last year, nor did Nashville picking up Peter Forsberg give them discipline [i.e. too many penalties] to pass San Jose into the second round. Dallas picked up Ladislav Nagy last year and he was totally useless – as he has been in L.A. this year. I am sure Phoenix’s management was delirious to have him off their books. Pittsburgh picked up Gary Roberts but they still couldn’t beat Ottawa.
Do the Washington Capitals go for an experienced backup and the ‘next guy’ behind Olaf Kolzig? The team is winning in spite of Kolzig’s 3+ goals against and .889 save percentage. They have the firepower to win 4 – 3 games, but they’re not going to see a lot of those come playoff time.
Does Tamp Bay break up their ‘core’ of Brad Richards, Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis? Having all that money tied up like they do in three players is killing them salary cap wise and they desperately need goaltending – could Columbus flip the Bolts one of their goalies and Sergei Fedorov for Richards? Richards would be a dynamic set up guy for Rick Nash, and this may be one more of those ‘A change could do you good’ trades.
Should the Toronto Maple Leafs try and move Mats Sundin if he seems content to stay in Toronto is another big question. If the player in question, in this case the unquestioned star of the team and best player, is not asking to be moved to a Cup contender as he enters his twilight years, then I say you respect that. Will Mats feel the same way next season at this point? Who knows? He may, like Ray Borque, finally decide enough is enough and ask to be moved. Management may feel the need to try and move Sundin to clear some salary and start the rebuilding, but that’s the Gretzky to L.A. trade all over again. Yes, Toronto put themselves in this hole by overpaying all the wrong players – Hal Gill, Bryan McCabe, Jason Blake. Toronto is trying the old Detroit Red Wings buy the Cup route, but a decade too late. Moving Sundin when he is not asking to be moved will really get the dander of the fans up… finally.
How about the Penguins? They lose Sid the Kid but they keep the pressure on in the Atlantic. How about Ryan Malone and Peter Sykora stepping into the breech and making things happen? It’s never great when the number one guy goes out, but it is good that the team learns that they can play well without him and that every player makes a difference. And I think the quick rehab trip to the minors that’s coming up will be good for Marc –Andre Fleury, too. Force him to work on the basics – positioning mostly and work with someone who will help him out of the slump he was in before going down with the ankle sprain.
Anyway, it’s fun to think about the possibility of your team adding the ‘one guy’ that puts them over the top and into contention for the Stanley Cup – but history shows that it rarely works out that way.
And, by the way, I have leapt off the Anaheim Ducks bandwagon again. They got a boost from Scott Neidermeyer returning, they go into a 6 game skid, Teemmu Sellane comes back and they win a couple against the stiffs [Buffalo, the Rangers] in the east and suddenly they are back in the race? Look, I think San Jose has their own issues and I HATE to see Dallas win the division again, but until the Ducks put some winds up against teams they need to beat – Detroit, Dallas, San Jose – I’m taking the against line.
An End to the Controversy
In an effort to aid the NHL and spread fairness throughout the league, as in “the Eastern Conference teams never leave the Eastern time zone after the All Star break, the Western teams have a crappy travel schedule,” I have come up with the new alignment for the NHL: North and South. No divisions, no division winners getting a 1,2, 3 seed, all based on top eight teams in each conference. NO POINTS. Wins and losses only, like every other dang sport.
In the Chaz Realignment, you have all the teams traveling to all the other teams across all the time zones all year long. Play a 72 game schedule, home and home with the other conference and each team in your conference three times, rotating the extra game each year. Conferences as follows:
North: Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings,
Edmonton Oilers, Minnesota Wild, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks
South: Anaheim Ducks, Atlanta Thrashers, Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Florida Panthers, L.A. Kings, Nashville Pedators, Phoenix Coyotes, Pittsburgh Penguins, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Washington Capitols
Note, that this does put all the ‘Original Six’ and Canadian teams into one conference, a move sure to be appreciated by the hard core fans, and allows the southern teams to play their geographical neighbors, something not currently being done as Nashville is in the West. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are not in the same conference, as there would be a strong geographic tie for Washington, Pittsburgh and Columbus to be together regionally. If the Nashville or Florida franchise moves to Canada, simply realign again by dropping Philadelphia into the southern conference; if the go to Kansas City or Las Vegas, leave ‘Nashville’ in the southern conference. This realignment DOES NOT allow for any expansion, a move I applaud. If you want to keep the NHL as the best league in the world, cap the teams at 30. We have seen what watering down or ‘creating parity’ has done for baseball and football.
It's just one of those days. One of the days where you feel like nothing and nobody. Cars slide around my little truck on the freeway like I don't even exist, like I am not taking up my space here. I feel like I need a good soak in the hot tub, maybe half an hour and some cold beers, too, when what I really need is a good card game with some friends and some beers and lots of laughs. And maybe a soak in a hot tub. Lee mentioned beer. Beer sounds so good. He's stuck there for two more hours, but I am leaving now. I'd like a couple of cold ones at Frills with a couple of Wild Turkey chasers and just being out for a while. But I don't do that too much anymore. Is there anything sadder than a dude by himself at a bar watching sports center and playing the trivia game? I don't want to be that guy tonight.
I stop for beer and gas and see the beautiful young people and they walk around me in the store and the parking lot like I don't even exist, and I guess I don't in their little worlds, just the dude in front of them in line getting a 40 oz. and a 12 pack of Diet Coke with lime.
I listen to the same sad ZZ Top song three times coming home, the beautiful 7:20 of Sure Got Cold After the Rain Fell. Certainly Billy Gibbons understands how I feel tonight. Another car zooms by me as I am merging onto I - 30. Even with my signal on it's like I don't exist. My little truck is dirty still with last weeks rain splotches on it, but I know... well, I am kind of sure it exists with me in it here. I pull out the CD so I can load them on my drive when I get home. Billy Idol's Flesh for Fantasy comes on. Now there's something I need. Or maybe not. It makes me smile as I do my sneer and fist pump at the light at Oakland. Cheryl Culpepper was the big Billy Idol fan in our school.
I've been trying to chase down a face from the past with Leisa, but I am the only one with the yearbooks. Like I don't have enough dreams about friends I no longer see. Names and faces I thought were gone forever and suddenly they're flooding my mind, memories of someone's smile and stories of days gone by and one girl's mischievous cackle laugh. I dreamed the other night I was having sex with a woman long long gone. I had caught the tail end of the Cure's Lovesong before Billy. "No matter how far away / I will always love you." I said always to that woman. I meant it at the time, but always isn't as long as I thought I guess. We say always and we mean it in our hearts, but do we know in the back of our mind that it's usually not?
Shot and a beer. And some peace of mind, for a few hours at least.
I stop for beer and gas and see the beautiful young people and they walk around me in the store and the parking lot like I don't even exist, and I guess I don't in their little worlds, just the dude in front of them in line getting a 40 oz. and a 12 pack of Diet Coke with lime.
I listen to the same sad ZZ Top song three times coming home, the beautiful 7:20 of Sure Got Cold After the Rain Fell. Certainly Billy Gibbons understands how I feel tonight. Another car zooms by me as I am merging onto I - 30. Even with my signal on it's like I don't exist. My little truck is dirty still with last weeks rain splotches on it, but I know... well, I am kind of sure it exists with me in it here. I pull out the CD so I can load them on my drive when I get home. Billy Idol's Flesh for Fantasy comes on. Now there's something I need. Or maybe not. It makes me smile as I do my sneer and fist pump at the light at Oakland. Cheryl Culpepper was the big Billy Idol fan in our school.
I've been trying to chase down a face from the past with Leisa, but I am the only one with the yearbooks. Like I don't have enough dreams about friends I no longer see. Names and faces I thought were gone forever and suddenly they're flooding my mind, memories of someone's smile and stories of days gone by and one girl's mischievous cackle laugh. I dreamed the other night I was having sex with a woman long long gone. I had caught the tail end of the Cure's Lovesong before Billy. "No matter how far away / I will always love you." I said always to that woman. I meant it at the time, but always isn't as long as I thought I guess. We say always and we mean it in our hearts, but do we know in the back of our mind that it's usually not?
Shot and a beer. And some peace of mind, for a few hours at least.
Friday, February 01, 2008
ANOTHER Economics Rant:
So in 8 days the Federal Reserve Board, headed by fairly new chairman Ben Bernake, has lowered the interlending rate – the rate banks charge to loan each other money overnight – 1.25 points down to 3%. Banks in turn are lowering interest rates in an effort to get more Americans to borrow and INCREASE their debtload. [Or is it to help them refinance their sub – prime, now way over their heads housing at steady interest rates, racking up some more charges for the banks to offset those losses from defaults?] If you can’t borrow what you need to cover your previous loan because the value of your home has fallen due to market forces, what newer, cleverer way will the banks come up with to help you refinance?
So in 8 days the Federal Reserve Board, headed by fairly new chairman Ben Bernake, has lowered the interlending rate – the rate banks charge to loan each other money overnight – 1.25 points down to 3%. Banks in turn are lowering interest rates in an effort to get more Americans to borrow and INCREASE their debtload. [Or is it to help them refinance their sub – prime, now way over their heads housing at steady interest rates, racking up some more charges for the banks to offset those losses from defaults?] If you can’t borrow what you need to cover your previous loan because the value of your home has fallen due to market forces, what newer, cleverer way will the banks come up with to help you refinance?
I think at this point we all know Ben Bernake is no Alan Greenspan. More’s the pity. A.G. did a great job at the Fed for so long, I guess I’m spoiled. Greenspan probably would not have dropped the rates like Bernake has – and would have told the stock market to get bent. Greenspan had a long term vision for keeping inflation in check as well as controlling monetary policy. I say again, it’s not the Federal Reserve’s job to control interest rates! Greenspan would probably have told us that investing in ANYTHING – stocks AND real estate is a gamble and that prices will fluctuate on occasion – that means go down. “take your medicine and hold on – it’ll come back up.”
So if the economy takes off on a rocket of inflation, is the Fed going to jump rates back up 1.25 percent in 8 days to counter inflation? Bernake needs to learn to give rate cuts time to take effect before stomping the gas. I could see Greenspan dropping the rate about half a point and hinting that further reductions would be made if they determined they were needed – the so called ‘soft landing.’
Milton and Rose Friedman wrote in Free To Choose [1980]: "Since 1935 the [Federal Reserve] System has presided over - and greatly contributed to - a major recession in 1937-38, a wartime and immediate post war inflation, and a roller coaster economy since, with alternate rises and falls in inflation and decreases and increases in unemployment. Each inflationary peak and each temporary inflationary trough has been at a higher and higher level, and the average level of unemployment has gradually increased. The System has not made the same mistake that it made in 1929-33 - of permitting or fostering a monetary collapse - but it has made the opposite mistake, of fostering an unduly rapid growth in the quantity of money and so promoting inflation. In addition, it has continued, by swinging from one extreme to another, to produce not only booms but also recessions, some mild, some sharp."
And let’s remember one more thing –the economy is still GROWING. It’s slower than the Fed would probably like [about 2.2 percent] and it was slow in the 4th quarter [.6 percent] but still growing.
I saw Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson on Charlie Rose the other night. He did not seem surprised that the housing bubble burst. He pointed out that in the 50’s, one could get housing at a level of about 3x your annual salary and that currently housing was running about 5x the annual salary, which he said was too high.
Now, the United States Congress wants to borrow $ 150 billion dollars for economic stimulus and give it to ‘the people.’ This is not a tax refund or loan against next year’s return, this is the Federal government using a credit card for a cash advance – to be paid at some undetermined time in the future while it racks up interest charges [though at a new lower rate]. Once again the government ‘feels your pain,’ gives you a pill and lets the bill come later.
Let me remind you all what happened in 2001 when the government sent you a loan against your 2002 return – you all saved that money. You put it away for an emergency or used it to pay down your outstanding debt. That’s not what the government wanted you to do – they wanted you to go buy a DVD player or TV or home theater system and increase out trade deficit with China. But you blew it.
The next kick is that you’re not going to get that money until June in most cases, long after the crisis has passed. And you’re going to do the same thing you did in 2001 – because you’re worried about the price of housing and energy and food – you’re going to sock it away or pay down your current debt, not invest in steel plants.
As far as the ‘sub-prime crisis’ is concerned, how could you get away with giving out loans with no money down to secure them and not verifying income? Because everyone along the way got paid – up front. Someone else on Charlie Rose last week pointed that out. And people were getting loans for more than the value of their property and pocketing the extra cash! Someone [no names on the KERA schedule] on Tony Brown’s Journal pointed out that banks were pushing people into sub-prime, no money down loans [and whatever happened to 'you can't get something for nothing?'] even when they were qualified for fixed interest loans. It was a way for them to make money quickly and have the interest rate rise on their books as growth – never dreaming that people would be unable to pay, I guess, when their mortgages doubled or tripled.